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Shintaro Mochizuki vs Federico Cina — Brest Round of 32

BrestR32HardTue 27 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Cina F.
39%61%

Cina F. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Mochizuki S.5.7/10
Slight disadvantage
Cina F.6.8/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+158 Hard Elo edgeSupports Cina F.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1630Supports Cina F.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysBoth players
ELO1 834
Hard ELO1 662
Last 106–4
Age23
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.1M2026 $675K
ELO1 822
Hard ELO1 683
Last 106–4
Age19
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $595K2026 $355K

Shintaro Mochizuki faces Federico Cina in the Brest round of 32 on hard. Shintaro Mochizuki holds the paper edge — ranked #129. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Freshness: Shintaro Mochizuki comes in with 8 days of rest and 95 games in 14d, vs Federico Cina's 6 and 76.
  • Serve & return: Federico Cina brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 27), Shintaro Mochizuki the stronger return game (Return Rating 62).
  • Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

2 shared · last 12 months

Mochizuki S. and Cina F. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Mochizuki S. went 1–1 (50%) against them, Cina F. 2–0 (100%).

1–150%Mochizuki S. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents2–0100%Cina F. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
3–3Sets4–2
27–30Games31–29
0–0Tiebreaks2–0
1–0Deciding sets2–0

Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Mochizuki S.Cina F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate43% (25–33)59% (37–26) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1834 (ahead)1822
Hard-court ELO16621683 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 47 vs 63 matches
1st-serve points won69%70% (ahead)
Return points won39% (ahead)38%
Aces / match3.34.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 47 vs 63 matches
Break points saved58%62% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast15°C · Clear
Wind17 km/h
Humidity72%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Mochizuki S.Cina F.
8 — fresherDays since last match6
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days2
0 — fresherGames · 7 days54
4Matches · 14 days3 — fresher
95Games · 14 days76 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Shintaro Mochizuki vs Federico Cina — Brest Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/cina-vs-mochizuki-brest-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).