Shintaro Mochizuki vs Linang XiaoChengdu Qualifying Round of 16

Chengdu · ATP · Qualifying Round of 16
#125ATP
1475ELO
1425Hard ELO
$675kYTD
$2.1MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
hard
#1126ATP
26 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLLLL
Mochizuki S.
7-5 4-6 7-5
Xiao L.
Mochizuki S.
7472
Xiao L.
5651

Shintaro Mochizuki defeated Linang Xiao in the Chengdu quarterfinals qualifying round, winning 7-5, 4-6, 7-5. Both players converted 44% and 80% of their break points respectively, and each had four service breaks. Mochizuki served three aces and committed two double faults, matching Xiao's three aces but not his zero double faults.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum · Final
Mochizuki S.10/17
Xiao L.9/17

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-10-02Shanghai MastersQ1hardLinang Xiao6-2 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
51%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
33%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.4
5.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Mochizuki S.77%
Xiao L.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mochizuki S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
2.83 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
1.92 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
95
91

Mochizuki S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Xiao L.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CMainly clear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw