UMPIRY
EN

Daniil Ostapenkov vs Quinn Vandecasteele — Sioux Falls Qualifying Round of 32

Sioux FallsQ32QualifyingHardSun 25 Oct · 11:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Ostapenkov D.
61%39%

Ostapenkov D. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ostapenkov D.6.2/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Vandecasteele Q.5.5/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardSupports Ostapenkov D.
Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardSupports Ostapenkov D.
CountryWon 53% in USA (149)Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Ostapenkov D.
Recent runLost last 2Both players
ELO1 655
Hard ELO1 635
Last 105–5
Age23
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $55K2026 $12K
ELO1 602
Hard ELO1 574
Last 104–6
Age24
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $95K2026 $28K

Daniil Ostapenkov faces Quinn Vandecasteele in the Sioux Falls qualifying round of 32 on hard. They have met 2 times, Daniil Ostapenkov leading 2–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Ostapenkov D. leads 2–0
20

Evidence

Ostapenkov D.Vandecasteele Q.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate58% (19–14) (ahead)48% (24–26)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1655 (ahead)1602
Hard-court ELO1635 (ahead)1574
Serve vs returnLast 32 vs 48 matches
1st-serve points won70%70%
Return points won39%40% (ahead)
Aces / match6.0 (ahead)5.6
ClutchLast 32 vs 48 matches
Break points saved51%59% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast8°C · Drizzle
Wind11 km/h
Humidity79%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Ostapenkov D.Vandecasteele Q.
7Days since last match7
1Matches · 7 days1
25 — fresherGames · 7 days27
1Matches · 14 days1
25 — fresherGames · 14 days27
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daniil Ostapenkov vs Quinn Vandecasteele — Sioux Falls Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-25/ostapenkov-vs-vandecasteele-sioux-falls-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 25 October 2026).