Daniil Ostapenkov vs Quinn VandecasteeleSan Diego 2 Qualifying Round of 32

San Diego 2 · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Round of 32
#555ATP
$12kYTD
$55kCAREER
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 20 September 2026 ·
hard
#465ATP
1383ELO
1368Hard ELO
$28kYTD
$95kCAREER
24 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWL
Ostapenkov D.
7-5 4-6 6-3
Vandecasteele Q.
Ostapenkov D.
7462
Vandecasteele Q.
5631

Daniil Ostapenkov defeated Quinn Vandecasteele in the qualifying second round of the San Diego 2 hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 in favor of Ostapenkov. Ostapenkov converted 57 percent of his break points and won five service breaks, compared to Vandecasteele's three service breaks and 75 percent break point conversion rate.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum · Final
Ostapenkov D.11/15
Vandecasteele Q.10/16

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
48%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
50%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.5
5.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.2
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Ostapenkov D.68%
Vandecasteele Q.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ostapenkov D. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.55 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
5.5Won 58% in USA (101)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
70
70

Ostapenkov D.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Vandecasteele Q.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
31°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw