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Ye Xin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Qualifying Round of 32

Toray Pan Pacific Open - TokyoQ32QualifyingHardSat 24 Oct · 04:30 UTC
Ye Xin MaWTA #200 · CHN30%
VSClear favourite · Kasatkina D.
Daria KasatkinaWTA #74 · AUS70%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Kasatkina D.
30%70%

Clear edge for Kasatkina D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Ma Y.4.6/10
Heavy underdog
Kasatkina D.6.6/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+316 Hard Elo edgeSupports Kasatkina D.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1795Supports Kasatkina D.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO1 654
Hard ELO1 626
Last 105–5
Age27
EarningsCareer $473K2026 $127K
ELO1 859
Hard ELO1 741
Last 103–7
Age29
EarningsCareer $15.3M2026 $1.1M

Ye Xin Ma faces Daria Kasatkina in the Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo qualifying round of 32 on hard. Daria Kasatkina is the paper favourite — ranked #74, a roughly 320-point hard Elo advantage — but Ye Xin Ma arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 10 on hard to Daria Kasatkina's 3 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Ma Y. and Kasatkina D. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Ma Y. went 0–1 (0%) against them, Kasatkina D. 0–1 (0%).

0–10%Ma Y. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents0–10%Kasatkina D. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
0–2Sets0–2
5–12Games5–12

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ma Y.Kasatkina D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate51% (29–28) (ahead)50% (24–24)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16541859 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO16261741 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 45 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won60% (ahead)58%
Return points won45%48% (ahead)
Aces / match2.2 (ahead)1.9
ClutchLast 45 vs 44 matches
Break points saved50%51% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Ma Y.Kasatkina D.
18 — fresherDays since last match4
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days1
0 — fresherGames · 7 days18
0 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
0 — fresherGames · 14 days88
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ye Xin Ma vs Daria Kasatkina — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-24/kasatkina-vs-ma-toray-pan-pacific-open-tokyo-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 24 October 2026).