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Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Mai Hontama — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Qualifying Round of 32

Toray Pan Pacific Open - TokyoQ32QualifyingHardSat 24 Oct · 03:00 UTC
Oleksandra OliynykovaWTA #62 · UKR48%
VSToss-up
Mai HontamaWTA #168 · JPN52%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
48%52%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Oliynykova O.6.3/10
Marginal edge
Hontama M.5.1/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+130 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Oliynykova O.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1773Against the prediction · Oliynykova O.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 783
Hard ELO1 528
Last 104–6
Age25
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.1M2026 $911K
ELO1 708
Hard ELO1 633
Last 104–6
Age27
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.2M2026 $167K

Oleksandra Oliynykova faces Mai Hontama in the Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo qualifying round of 32 on hard. Oleksandra Oliynykova holds the paper edge — ranked #62, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Oleksandra Oliynykova has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 78 vs 5).
  • Surface form: Both 4 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

2 shared · last 12 months

Oliynykova O. and Hontama M. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Oliynykova O. went 1–1 (50%) against them, Hontama M. 1–1 (50%).

1–150%Oliynykova O. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents1–150%Hontama M. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
2–3Sets2–2
26–26Games20–16
0–1Tiebreaks0–0
1–0Deciding sets0–0

Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Oliynykova O.Hontama M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–64–6
Season win rate53% (27–24)54% (30–26) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1783 (ahead)1708
Hard-court ELO15281633 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 48 vs 53 matches
1st-serve points won56%58% (ahead)
Return points won47%47%
Aces / match0.80.8
ClutchLast 48 vs 53 matches
Break points saved52% (ahead)51%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Oliynykova O.Hontama M.
3Days since last match4 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days1
17Games · 7 days16 — fresher
1Matches · 14 days1
17Games · 14 days16 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Mai Hontama — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-24/hontama-vs-oliynykova-toray-pan-pacific-open-tokyo-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 24 October 2026).