Elmer Moller vs Henrique Rocha | Lisbon Quarter-final

UMPIRY

LisbonQuarter-finalClayFri 23 Oct · ~13:00Court 1 · After 1 match

Elmer MollerATP #163 · DEN45%

VSToss-up

Henrique Rocha(2)ATP #105 · POR55%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

45%55%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Moller E.6.2/10

Even match

Rocha H.6.5/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+73 Clay Elo edgeSupports Rocha H.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1676Supports Rocha H.

Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on clayAgainst the prediction · Moller E.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Rocha H.

Recent run2-match win streakBoth players

ELO1 780

Clay ELO1 735

Last 106–4

Age23

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $742K2026 $170K

ELO1 801

Clay ELO1 698

Last 108–2

Age22

Height180 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $966K2026 $280K

Elmer Moller faces Henrique Rocha in the Lisbon quarter-final on clay. Henrique Rocha is the paper favourite — ranked #105, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage — but Elmer Moller has won both their previous meetings. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Elmer Moller 182 games in 14 days, Henrique Rocha 84.
Under pressure: Elmer Moller has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 69 vs Henrique Rocha's 45).
Head-to-head: Elmer Moller leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at Braga CH 2025.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Moller E. and Rocha H. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Moller E. went 1–0 (100%) against them, Rocha H. 0–1 (0%).

1–0100%Moller E. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents0–10%Rocha H. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

2–0Sets1–2

13–9Games10–16

1–0Tiebreaks0–0

0–0Deciding sets0–1

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Llamas Ruiz P.#139W7-6 6-3Madrid Masters · clayL6-4 3-6 1-6Rome Masters · clay

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Moller E. leads 2–0

Moller E.September 2025Braga CHClay6-7 6-3 6-1
Moller E.November 2024Lima 2 CHClay7-5 6-1

Evidence

Moller E.Rocha H.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–48–2

Season win rate49% (24–25)61% (37–24)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17801801

Clay-court ELO17351698

Serve vs returnLast 44 vs 56 matches

1st-serve points won62%69%

Return points won43%41%

Aces / match1.93.0

ClutchLast 44 vs 56 matches

Break points saved56%59%

When it starts

Court 1 · After 1 match · Followed by

1Trungelliti M. v Dodig M.Starts at 10:00
2This match: Moller E. v Rocha H.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Court 1 · ~13:00 local

SurfaceClay · slow

Forecast22°C · Clear

Wind13 km/h

Humidity40%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Moller E.Rocha H.

1Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days2

47Games · 7 days50

7Matches · 14 days3

182Games · 14 days84

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Elmer Moller vs Henrique Rocha — Lisbon Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-23/moller-vs-rocha-lisbon-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 23 October 2026).