Valerio Aboian vs Matias Soto — Cali Round of 16
Why
Surface+73 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Soto M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1421Against the prediction · Soto M.
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on clayAgainst the prediction · Soto M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Soto M.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 679
Clay ELO1 663
Last 106–4
Age24
Height183 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $145K2026 $29K
ELO1 676
Clay ELO1 654
Last 104–6
Age27
Height170 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $296K2026 $57K
Valerio Aboian faces Matias Soto in the Cali round of 16 on clay. Matias Soto is the paper favourite — ranked #265, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage — but Valerio Aboian arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on clay to Matias Soto's 4 of 10. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Valerio Aboian 54 games in 14 days, Matias Soto 31.
- Under pressure: Matias Soto has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 34 vs Valerio Aboian's 12).
- Last match: Valerio Aboian dropped the opening set before beating Facundo Mena 2–6 6–3 6–4.
Common opponents
0 shared · last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Head-to-head
2 meetings · level 1–111
- Soto M.March 2025Concepcion CHClay7-6 3-6 6-1
- Aboian V.December 2023M15 Concepcion 2Clay6-7(5) 6-4 6-1
Evidence
Aboian V.Soto M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate59% (36–25) (ahead)57% (27–20)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1679 (ahead)1676
Clay-court ELO1663 (ahead)1654
Serve vs returnLast 59 vs 44 matches
1st-serve points won67%70% (ahead)
Return points won42% (ahead)40%
Aces / match4.6 (ahead)4.3
ClutchLast 59 vs 44 matches
Break points saved58%61% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Valerio Aboian vs Matias Soto — Cali Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/aboian-vs-soto-cali-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).