Blake Ellis vs Benjamin O'Connell | M25 Tamworth Round of 32

UMPIRY

M25 TamworthR32HardWed 21 Oct · 14:00

Blake Ellis(4)ATP #445 · AUS86%

VSStrong favourite · Ellis B.

Benjamin O'ConnellAUS14%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Ellis B.

86%14%

Clear edge for Ellis B. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 7 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Ellis B.5.4/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

O'Connell B.5.7/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form4 of last 10 on hardInformative

Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardSupports Ellis B.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 676

Hard ELO1 626

Last 104–6

Age27

ELO1 520

Hard ELO1 516

Last 105–5

Age27

Blake Ellis faces Benjamin O'Connell in the M25 Tamworth round of 32 on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1. Last met at Phan Thiet 3 2026.
Surface form: Blake Ellis 4 of 10, Benjamin O'Connell 5 of 10 on hard recently — Benjamin O'Connell the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1

Ellis B.September 2026Phan Thiet 3Hard6-7(6) 3-6
O'Connell B.July 2026M25 BrisbaneHard6-4 6-1

Evidence

Ellis B.O'Connell B.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–65–5

Season win rate50% (18–18)41% (7–10)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16761520

Hard-court ELO16261516

Serve vs returnLast 33 vs 11 matches

1st-serve points won73%68%

Return points won34%38%

Aces / match9.82.7

ClutchLast 33 vs 11 matches

Break points saved68%58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

14:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast24°C · Drizzle

Wind2 km/h

Humidity49%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Blake Ellis vs Benjamin O'Connell — M25 Tamworth Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/ellis-vs-o-connell-m25-tamworth-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).