Rei Sakamoto vs Karen Khachanov — Almaty Round of 32
Why
Surface+194 Hard Elo edgeSupports Khachanov K.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1828Supports Khachanov K.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Sakamoto R.
This eventReached the last 16 here last yearSupports Khachanov K.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Khachanov K.
ELO1 884
Hard ELO1 779
Last 106–4
Age20
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $570K2026 $311K
ELO2 043
Hard ELO1 893
Last 107–3
Age30
Height198 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $23.5M2026 $1.4M
Rei Sakamoto faces Karen Khachanov in the Almaty round of 32 on hard. Karen Khachanov holds the paper edge — ranked #27, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Freshness: Rei Sakamoto comes in with 1 days of rest and 164 games in 14d, vs Karen Khachanov's 6 and 76.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Karen Khachanov has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 82 vs 49).
- Last match: Rei Sakamoto dropped the opening set before beating Gabriel Diallo 2–6 6–4 6–4.
Common opponents
3 shared · last 12 monthsSakamoto R. and Khachanov K. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Sakamoto R. went 2–1 (67%) against them, Khachanov K. 1–3 (25%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 0 better-results split).
2–167%Sakamoto R. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents1–325%Khachanov K. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
4–3Sets2–7
39–37Games38–50
1–1Tiebreaks0–1
1–0Deciding sets0–1
Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.
vs De Minaur A.#9L6-7(6) 4-6Shanghai Masters · hardL3-6 4-6Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Kovacevic A.#81W6-4 3-6 7-6Miami Masters · hardL7-5 3-6 6-7Cincinnati · hard
vs Trungelliti M.#90W6-3 7-5Shanghai Masters · hardW5-7 6-1Roland Garros · clay
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Evidence
Sakamoto R.Khachanov K.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–47–3 (ahead)
Season win rate63% (40–23) (ahead)53% (25–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO18842043 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17791893 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 60 vs 45 matches
1st-serve points won74%75% (ahead)
Return points won37% (ahead)36%
Aces / match8.4 (ahead)8.0
ClutchLast 60 vs 45 matches
Break points saved59%68% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Rei Sakamoto vs Karen Khachanov — Almaty Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-20/khachanov-vs-sakamoto-almaty-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 20 October 2026).