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Tereza Valentova vs Shuai Zhang — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32

Japan Open - OsakaR32HardMon 19 Oct · 11:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Valentova T.
64%36%

Valentova T. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Valentova T.6.3/10
Marginal edge
Zhang S.5.4/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+102 Hard Elo edgeSupports Valentova T.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1818Supports Valentova T.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 874
Hard ELO1 771
Last 106–4
Age19
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.3M2026 $757K
ELO1 818
Hard ELO1 722
Last 104–6
Age37
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $14.0M2026 $2.1M

Tereza Valentova faces Shuai Zhang in the Japan Open - Osaka round of 32 on hard. Tereza Valentova holds the paper edge — ranked #62, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

8 shared · last 12 months

Valentova T. and Zhang S. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Valentova T. went 5–4 (56%) against them, Zhang S. 4–5 (44%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 1 better-results split).

5–456%Valentova T. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents4–544%Zhang S. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
11–9Sets8–12
97–94Games81–96
1–0Tiebreaks1–0
1–1Deciding sets2–0
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Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Valentova T.Zhang S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate58% (26–19) (ahead)45% (22–27)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1874 (ahead)1818
Hard-court ELO1771 (ahead)1722
Serve vs returnLast 45 vs 47 matches
1st-serve points won63% (ahead)61%
Return points won46% (ahead)42%
Aces / match2.3 (ahead)1.8
ClutchLast 45 vs 47 matches
Break points saved55%56% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast24°C · Mainly clear
Wind2 km/h
Humidity68%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tereza Valentova vs Shuai Zhang — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/valentova-vs-zhang-japan-open-osaka-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).