UMPIRY
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Nicolas Jarry vs Tomas Barrios Vera — Cali Round of 32

CaliR32ClayMon 19 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Jarry N.5.7/10
Slight disadvantage
Barrios Vera T.6.0/10
Even match
Why
Surface+53 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Jarry N.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1648Against the prediction · Jarry N.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on clayInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 827
Clay ELO1 751
Last 104–6
Age31
Height201 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $7.9M2026 $70K
ELO1 798
Clay ELO1 707
Last 107–3
Age28
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.7M2026 $300K

Nicolas Jarry faces Tomas Barrios Vera in the Cali round of 32 on clay. Nicolas Jarry holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 50-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Head-to-head: Nicolas Jarry leads the head-to-head 2–0, 1–0 on clay. Last met at Tempe CH 2017.
  • Fatigue load: Tomas Barrios Vera carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 4 of 6 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Jarry N. leads 2–0
20

Hard: Jarry N. leads 1–0 · Clay: Jarry N. leads 1–0

Evidence

Jarry N.Barrios Vera T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–67–3 (ahead)
Season win rate31% (4–9)50% (28–28) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1827 (ahead)1798
Clay-court ELO1751 (ahead)1707
Serve vs returnLast 9 vs 45 matches
1st-serve points won72% (ahead)66%
Return points won37%39% (ahead)
Aces / match6.6 (ahead)2.9
ClutchLast 9 vs 45 matches
Break points saved58%62% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast24°C · Drizzle
Wind3 km/h
Humidity73%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Nicolas Jarry vs Tomas Barrios Vera — Cali Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/jarry-vs-vera-cali-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).