Paula Badosa vs Antonia Ruzic | Japan Open

UMPIRY

Japan Open - OsakaR32HardMon 19 Oct · 11:30

Paula BadosaWTA #58 · ESP69%

VSClear favourite · Badosa P.

Antonia RuzicWTA #93 · CRO31%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Badosa P.

69%31%

Clear edge for Badosa P. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Badosa P.6.4/10

Marginal edge

Ruzic A.5.5/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+31 Hard Elo edgeSupports Badosa P.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1780Supports Badosa P.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Badosa P.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysInformative

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 946

Hard ELO1 841

Last 106–4

Age28

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $10.1M2026 $785K

ELO1 811

Hard ELO1 705

Last 104–6

Age23

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.7M2026 $993K

Paula Badosa faces Antonia Ruzic in the Japan Open - Osaka round of 32 on hard. Paula Badosa holds the paper edge — ranked #58, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Paula Badosa 0 games in 14 days, Antonia Ruzic 82.
Head-to-head: Paula Badosa leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Beijing 2025.
Surface form: Paula Badosa 5 of 8, Antonia Ruzic 4 of 8 on hard recently — Paula Badosa the sharper of late.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Badosa P. and Ruzic A. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Badosa P. went 0–5 (0%) against them, Ruzic A. 1–4 (20%). Results against comparable opponents are close (0 : 1 better-results split).

0–50%Badosa P. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–420%Ruzic A. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

0–9Sets3–9

29–56Games39–62

0–1Tiebreaks0–0

0–0Deciding sets0–1

vs Rybakina E.#1L3-6 2-6Brisbane · hardW5-7 6-4 1-0Dubai · hard
vs Svitolina E.#6L4-6 0-0Dubai · hardL6-3 2-6 3-6Dubai · hard
vs Jovic I.#11L2-6 1-6Miami · hardL3-6 4-6London · grass

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vs Ostapenko J.#34L6-7(5) 5-7Beijing · hardL2-6 0-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Putintseva Y.#79L4-6 2-6Indian Wells · hardL4-6 3-6Strasbourg · clay

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Badosa P. leads 1–0

Badosa P.September 2025BeijingHard6-3 7-6

Evidence

Badosa P.Ruzic A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–44–6

Season win rate59% (27–19)45% (22–27)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19461811

Hard-court ELO18411705

Serve vs returnLast 46 vs 48 matches

1st-serve points won68%58%

Return points won45%43%

Aces / match4.01.3

ClutchLast 46 vs 48 matches

Break points saved55%55%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast24°C · Mainly clear

Wind2 km/h

Humidity68%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Badosa P.Ruzic A.

15Days since last match3

0Matches · 7 days2

0Games · 7 days54

0Matches · 14 days3

0Games · 14 days82

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Paula Badosa vs Antonia Ruzic — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/badosa-vs-ruzic-japan-open-osaka-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).