UMPIRY
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Patrick Schoen vs Francisco Rocha — Lisbon Qualifying Round of 32

LisbonQ32QualifyingClaySun 18 Oct · ~14:30Court 1 · After 1 match
Patrick SchoenATP #368 · SUI82%
VSStrong favourite · Schoen P.
Francisco RochaPOR18%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Schoen P.
82%18%

Clear edge for Schoen P. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Schoen P.6.3/10
Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Rocha F.4.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on claySupports Schoen P.
Recent runLost last 10Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Schoen P.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 696
Clay ELO1 549
Last 108–2
Age21
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $31K2026 $12K
ELO1 549
Clay ELO1 495
Last 103–7
Age27
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $77K2026 $11K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Schoen P.Rocha F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate77% (23–7) (ahead)35% (9–17)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1696 (ahead)1549
Clay-court ELO1549 (ahead)1495
Serve vs returnLast 29 vs 26 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)67%
Return points won44% (ahead)38%
Aces / match3.2 (ahead)3.0
ClutchLast 29 vs 26 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)55%

When it starts

Court 1 · After 1 match · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Court 1 · ~14:30 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast23°C · Partly cloudy
Wind20 km/h
Humidity44%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Schoen P.Rocha F.
6Days since last match6
2Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
34Games · 7 days18 — fresher
6Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
98Games · 14 days47 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Patrick Schoen vs Francisco Rocha — Lisbon Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/rocha-vs-schoen-lisbon-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).