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Joshua Sheehy vs Aidan Mchugh — Fort Worth Qualifying Round of 32

Fort WorthQ32QualifyingHardSun 18 Oct · ~15:30COURT V4 · After 3 matches
Joshua SheehyATP #772 · USA16%
VSStrong favourite · Mchugh A.
Aidan MchughATP #476 · GBR84%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Mchugh A.
16%84%

Clear edge for Mchugh A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Sheehy J.5.1/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Mchugh A.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardSupports Mchugh A.
Recent runLost last 3Supports Mchugh A.
CountryWon 64% in USA (104)Supports Mchugh A.
Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 536
Hard ELO1 524
Last 102–8
Age29
Height188 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $96K2026 $12K
ELO1 678
Hard ELO1 663
Last 107–3
Age26
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $239K2026 $1K

Joshua Sheehy faces Aidan Mchugh in the Fort Worth qualifying round of 32 on hard. Aidan Mchugh holds the paper edge — ranked #476, leading the head-to-head 1–0.

Key context

  • Surface form: Joshua Sheehy 1 of 8, Aidan Mchugh 6 of 8 on hard recently — Aidan Mchugh the sharper of late.
  • Head-to-head: Aidan Mchugh leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Nottingham CH 2026.
  • Fatigue load: Joshua Sheehy carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Mchugh A. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Sheehy J.Mchugh A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss2–87–3 (ahead)
Season win rate36% (10–18)71% (10–4) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15361678 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15241663 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 26 vs 14 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)72%
Return points won35%41% (ahead)
Aces / match7.7 (ahead)4.9
ClutchLast 26 vs 14 matches
Break points saved68% (ahead)66%

When it starts

COURT V4 · After 3 matches · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT V4 · ~15:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast21°C · Clear
Wind7 km/h
Humidity33%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Joshua Sheehy vs Aidan Mchugh — Fort Worth Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/mchugh-vs-sheehy-fort-worth-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).