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Keegan Rice vs Sander Jong — Fort Worth Qualifying Round of 32

Fort WorthQ32QualifyingHardSun 18 Oct · 11:00COURT V4 · Next on
Keegan RiceATP #590 · CAN20%
VSStrong favourite · Jong S.
Sander JongATP #489 · NED80%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Jong S.
20%80%

Clear edge for Jong S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Rice K.5.8/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Jong S.5.6/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Surface switchClay → HardAgainst the prediction · Rice K.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 553
Hard ELO1 542
Last 105–5
Age20
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $50K2026 $39K
ELO1 686
Hard ELO1 556
Last 107–3
Age26
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $49K2026 $15K

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Rice K.Jong S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate64% (9–5)76% (28–9) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15531686 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15421556 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 10 vs 35 matches
1st-serve points won67%72% (ahead)
Return points won41%45% (ahead)
Aces / match2.14.3 (ahead)
ClutchLast 10 vs 35 matches
Break points saved49%67% (ahead)

When it starts

COURT V4 · Next on · Starts at 11:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT V4 · 11:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast15°C · Clear
Wind3 km/h
Humidity58%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Keegan Rice vs Sander Jong — Fort Worth Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/jong-vs-rice-fort-worth-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).