Kai Wehnelt vs Milos Karol | Lisbon Qualifying Round of 32

UMPIRY

LisbonQ32QualifyingClaySun 18 Oct · ~16:00COURT BELEM · After 3 matches

Kai WehneltATP #613 · GER40%

VSSlight edge · Karol M.

Milos KarolATP #583 · SVK60%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Karol M.

40%60%

Karol M. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Wehnelt K.5.8/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Karol M.6.1/10

Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form5 of last 10 on claySupports Karol M.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Wehnelt K.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 614

Clay ELO1 578

Last 104–6

Age30

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $171K2026 $10K

ELO1 670

Clay ELO1 574

Last 105–5

Age23

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $149K2026 $12K

Kai Wehnelt faces Milos Karol in the Lisbon qualifying round of 32 on clay. Milos Karol holds the paper edge — ranked #583. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Kai Wehnelt comes in with 5 days of rest and 65 games in 14d, vs Milos Karol's 3 and 112.
Surface form: Kai Wehnelt 4 of 10, Milos Karol 5 of 10 on clay recently — Milos Karol the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Wehnelt K.Karol M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–65–5

Season win rate56% (19–15)44% (11–14)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16141670

Clay-court ELO15781574

Serve vs returnLast 34 vs 23 matches

1st-serve points won74%76%

Return points won40%36%

Aces / match5.510.7

ClutchLast 34 vs 23 matches

Break points saved57%63%

When it starts

COURT BELEM · After 3 matches · Followed by

1Kielan S. v Hassan B.4-6 4-6
2Shelbayh A. v Rodenas P.4-3
3Liborio P. v Krutykh O.Followed by
4Yuzuki T. v Gulin S.Followed by
5This match: Wehnelt K. v Karol M.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT BELEM · ~16:00 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast25°C · Clear

Wind16 km/h

Humidity43%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Wehnelt K.Karol M.

5Days since last match3

3Matches · 7 days4

65Games · 7 days92

3Matches · 14 days5

65Games · 14 days112

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Kai Wehnelt vs Milos Karol — Lisbon Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/karol-vs-wehnelt-lisbon-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).