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Yuta Shimizu vs Alibek Kachmazov — Guangzhou Qualifying Round of 32

GuangzhouQ32QualifyingHardSun 18 Oct · ~14:00COURT 2 · After 2 matches
VSClear favourite · Kachmazov A.
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Kachmazov A.
29%71%

Clear edge for Kachmazov A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Shimizu Y.5.8/10
Slight disadvantage
Kachmazov A.6.5/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+50 Hard Elo edgeSupports Kachmazov A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1490Supports Kachmazov A.
Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysInformative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 703
Hard ELO1 644
Last 105–5
Age27
Height163 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $526K2026 $23K
ELO1 727
Hard ELO1 676
Last 109–1
Age24
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $446K2026 $9K

Yuta Shimizu faces Alibek Kachmazov in the Guangzhou qualifying round of 32 on hard. Yuta Shimizu is the paper favourite — ranked #393 — but Alibek Kachmazov arrives in form, winning 9 of their last 10 on hard to Yuta Shimizu's 5 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Shimizu Y.Kachmazov A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–59–1 (ahead)
Season win rate52% (22–20)72% (18–7) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17031727 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO16441676 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 41 vs 23 matches
1st-serve points won70%77% (ahead)
Return points won37%39% (ahead)
Aces / match5.09.3 (ahead)
ClutchLast 41 vs 23 matches
Break points saved60%65% (ahead)

When it starts

COURT 2 · After 2 matches · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 2 · ~14:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast32°C · Drizzle
Wind8 km/h
Humidity54%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Shimizu Y.Kachmazov A.
16 — fresherDays since last match4
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days3
0 — fresherGames · 7 days92
0 — fresherMatches · 14 days7
0 — fresherGames · 14 days184
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Yuta Shimizu vs Alibek Kachmazov — Guangzhou Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/kachmazov-vs-shimizu-guangzhou-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).