Yaroslav Demin vs Alexandr Binda | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

GuangzhouQ32QualifyingHardSun 18 Oct · ~15:30COURT 2 · After 3 matches

Yaroslav DeminATP #653 · RUS38%

VSSlight edge · Binda A.

Alexandr BindaATP #474 · ITA62%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Binda A.

38%62%

Binda A. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Demin Y.5.4/10

Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Binda A.6.4/10

Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form7 of last 10 on hardSupports Binda A.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 557

Hard ELO1 535

Last 105–5

Age21

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

ELO1 653

Hard ELO1 623

Last 107–3

Age25

Height175 cm

PlaysRight

Yaroslav Demin faces Alexandr Binda in the Guangzhou qualifying round of 32 on hard. Alexandr Binda holds the paper edge — ranked #474.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Yaroslav Demin 38 games in 14 days, Alexandr Binda 0.
Surface form: Yaroslav Demin 2 of 5, Alexandr Binda 3 of 5 on hard recently — Alexandr Binda the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Demin Y.Binda A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–57–3

Season win rate47% (8–9)53% (23–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15571653

Hard-court ELO15351623

Serve vs returnLast 16 vs 40 matches

1st-serve points won69%67%

Return points won41%40%

Aces / match3.53.9

ClutchLast 16 vs 40 matches

Break points saved60%52%

When it starts

COURT 2 · After 3 matches · Followed by

1Yang X. v Sultanov K.Starts at 11:00 AM
2Imamura M. v Purtseladze S.Followed by
3Shimizu Y. v Kachmazov A.Followed by
4This match: Demin Y. v Binda A.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 2 · ~15:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast32°C · Drizzle

Wind8 km/h

Humidity53%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Demin Y.Binda A.

10Days since last match18

0Matches · 7 days0

0Games · 7 days0

2Matches · 14 days0

38Games · 14 days0

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Yaroslav Demin vs Alexandr Binda — Guangzhou Qualifying Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-18/binda-vs-demin-guangzhou-q32?utm_source=cite (as of 18 October 2026).