Kristina Penickova vs Julieta Pareja | W100 Edmond Quarter-final

UMPIRY

W100 EdmondQuarter-finalHardSat 17 Oct · 11:45

Kristina PenickovaWTA #555 · USA15%

VSStrong favourite · Pareja J.

Julieta ParejaWTA #250 · USA85%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Pareja J.

15%85%

Clear edge for Pareja J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 7 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Penickova K.4.1/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Pareja J.4.8/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form6 of last 10 on hardSupports Pareja J.

CountryWon 74% in USA (54)Supports Pareja J.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 552

Hard ELO1 535

Last 106–4

Age17

PlaysRight

ELO1 708

Hard ELO1 644

Last 107–3

Age17

PlaysRight

Kristina Penickova faces Julieta Pareja in the W100 Edmond quarter-final on hard. Julieta Pareja holds the paper edge — ranked #250. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Kristina Penickova dropped the opening set before beating Elvina Kalieva 2–6 6–3 6–2.
Last match: Julieta Pareja handed Varvara Lepchenko a third-set bagel in a 6–2 3–6 6–0 win.
Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Penickova K. and Pareja J. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Penickova K. went 1–0 (100%) against them, Pareja J. 1–0 (100%).

1–0100%Penickova K. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–0100%Pareja J. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

2–0Sets2–0

13–7Games12–6

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Mandlik E.#225W7-5 6-2US Open · hardW6-3 6-3Bogota · clay

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Penickova K.Pareja J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–47–3

Season win rate59% (13–9)70% (23–10)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO15521708

Hard-court ELO15351644

Serve vs returnLast 16 vs 22 matches

1st-serve points won64%62%

Return points won46%46%

Aces / match2.30.9

ClutchLast 16 vs 22 matches

Break points saved58%63%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:45 local

SurfaceHard · medium-fast

Forecast11°C · Clear

Wind1 km/h

Humidity71%

Court pace medium-fast: rewards aggression.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Kristina Penickova vs Julieta Pareja — W100 Edmond Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-17/pareja-vs-penickova-w100-edmond-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 17 October 2026).