Tomas Machac vs Aleksandar Vukic | Jinan Round of 16

UMPIRY

JinanR16HardThu 15 Oct · ~15:15CENTER COURT · After 1 match

Tomas Machac(6)ATP #75 · CZE70%

VSClear favourite · Machac T.

Aleksandar VukicATP #115 · AUS30%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Machac T.

70%30%

Clear edge for Machac T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Machac T.6.8/10

Slight advantage

Vukic A.3.9/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+232 Hard Elo edgeSupports Machac T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1866Supports Machac T.

Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardSupports Machac T.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysBoth players

ELO1 959

Hard ELO1 821

Last 103–7

Age26

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $6.8M2026 $862K

ELO1 772

Hard ELO1 700

Last 104–6

Age30

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $4.1M2026 $576K

Tomas Machac faces Aleksandar Vukic in the Jinan round of 16 on hard. Tomas Machac holds the paper edge — ranked #75, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Tomas Machac has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 88 vs 23).
Freshness: Tomas Machac comes in with 2 days of rest and 87 games in 14d, vs Aleksandar Vukic's 1 and 71.
Last match: Aleksandar Vukic dropped just 5 games past Hayato Matsuoka.

Common opponents

2 shared · last 12 months

Machac T. and Vukic A. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Machac T. went 1–1 (50%) against them, Vukic A. 0–2 (0%).

1–150%Machac T. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents0–20%Vukic A. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

4–4Sets2–4

35–41Games30–36

0–0Tiebreaks1–1

1–1Deciding sets0–2

Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Musetti L.#25L7-5 4-6 2-6 7-5 2-6Australian Open · hardL3-6 7-5 3-6Washington · hard
vs Altmaier D.#67W6-4 1-6 6-3Monte Carlo Masters · clayL7-6(2) 6-7(5) 4-6Montreal · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Machac T. leads 2–0

Machac T.October 2024Shanghai MastersHard6-4 6-2
Machac T.October 2023ViennaHard6-3 6-1

Evidence

Machac T.Vukic A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss3–74–6

Season win rate52% (17–16)44% (24–30)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19591772

Hard-court ELO18211700

Serve vs returnLast 32 vs 48 matches

1st-serve points won68%71%

Return points won36%35%

Aces / match5.06.5

ClutchLast 32 vs 48 matches

Break points saved58%59%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 1 match · Followed by

1Shevchenko A. v Hara Friend J.6-0 6-4
2Watanuki Y. v Cilic M.7-5 0-0
3This match: Machac T. v Vukic A.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · ~15:15 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast27°C · Clear

Wind11 km/h

Humidity36%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Machac T.Vukic A.

2Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days1

42Games · 7 days17

4Matches · 14 days3

87Games · 14 days71

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tomas Machac vs Aleksandar Vukic — Jinan Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/machac-vs-vukic-jinan-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).