Luka Pavlovic vs Tristan Schoolkate | Jinan Round of 32

UMPIRY

JinanR32HardWed 14 Oct · ~12:30COURT 1 · After 1 match

Luka PavlovicATP #207 · FRA30%

VSClear favourite · Schoolkate T.

Tristan SchoolkateATP #155 · AUS70%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Schoolkate T.

30%70%

Clear edge for Schoolkate T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Pavlovic L.5.8/10

Slight disadvantage

Schoolkate T.6.0/10

Even match

Why

Surface+51 Hard Elo edgeSupports Schoolkate T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1549Supports Schoolkate T.

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Pavlovic L.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Pavlovic L.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 746

Hard ELO1 536

Last 105–5

Age26

Height196 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $520K2026 $258K

ELO1 805

Hard ELO1 704

Last 105–5

Age25

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.6M2026 $322K

Luka Pavlovic faces Tristan Schoolkate in the Jinan round of 32 on hard. Tristan Schoolkate holds the paper edge — ranked #155, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Luka Pavlovic 97 games in 14 days, Tristan Schoolkate 73.
Last match: Luka Pavlovic dropped just 2 games past Kangyuan Shi.
Surface form: Both 5 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Pavlovic L. and Schoolkate T. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Pavlovic L. went 1–0 (100%) against them, Schoolkate T. 0–1 (0%).

1–0100%Pavlovic L. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents0–10%Schoolkate T. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

2–0Sets0–2

12–6Games8–12

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Blanch D.#159W6-2 6-4Roland Garros · clayL4-6 4-6Roland Garros · clay

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Pavlovic L.Schoolkate T.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–55–5

Season win rate52% (27–25)53% (32–28)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17461805

Hard-court ELO15361704

Serve vs returnLast 38 vs 49 matches

1st-serve points won78%74%

Return points won34%36%

Aces / match10.58.0

ClutchLast 38 vs 49 matches

Break points saved64%61%

When it starts

COURT 1 · After 1 match · Followed by

1Matsuoka H. v Vukic A.Starts at 11:00
2This match: Pavlovic L. v Schoolkate T.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 1 · ~12:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast23°C · Clear

Wind21 km/h

Humidity41%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Pavlovic L.Schoolkate T.

1Days since last match8

2Matches · 7 days0

35Games · 7 days0

5Matches · 14 days3

97Games · 14 days73

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Luka Pavlovic vs Tristan Schoolkate — Jinan Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-14/pavlovic-vs-schoolkate-jinan-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 14 October 2026).