Sergey Fomin vs Dominik Palan — M25 Qian Daohu Round of 32

M25 Qian DaohuR32HardWed 14 Oct · 02:05 UTC
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Fomin S.
75%25%

Clear edge for Fomin S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Fomin S.6.2/10
Even match
Palan D.4.8/10
Heavy underdog
Why
Surface+168 Hard Elo edgeSupports Fomin S.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1422Supports Fomin S.
Recent runLost last 5Both players
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 670
Hard ELO1 603
Last 103–7
Age25
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $168K2026 $33K
ELO1 583
Hard ELO1 564
Last 101–9
Age26
Height191 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $143K2026 $16K

Sergey Fomin faces Dominik Palan in the M25 Qian Daohu round of 32 on hard. Sergey Fomin holds the paper edge — ranked #294, a roughly 170-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Fomin S.Palan D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss3–7 (ahead)1–9
Season win rate48% (19–21) (ahead)37% (10–17)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1670 (ahead)1583
Hard-court ELO1603 (ahead)1564
Serve vs returnLast 31 vs 10 matches
1st-serve points won69%74% (ahead)
Return points won37% (ahead)31%
Aces / match4.86.8 (ahead)
ClutchLast 31 vs 10 matches
Break points saved54% (ahead)52%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Fomin S.Palan D.
8 — fresherDays since last match7
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days1
0 — fresherGames · 7 days23
1Matches · 14 days1
21 — fresherGames · 14 days23
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sergey Fomin vs Dominik Palan — M25 Qian Daohu Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-14/fomin-vs-palan-m25-qian-daohu-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 14 October 2026).