Sergey Fomin vs M. Shearer | M25 Qian Daohu Round of 16

UMPIRY

M25 Qian DaohuR16HardThu 15 Oct · 05:00 UTC

Sergey Fomin(3)ATP #294 · UZB88%

VSStrong favourite · Fomin S.

M. ShearerNZL12%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Fomin S.

88%12%

Clear edge for Fomin S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 8 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Fomin S.4.5/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Shearer M.4.7/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form4 of last 10 on hardInformative

Recent runLost last 5Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 673

Hard ELO1 606

Last 104–6

Age25

ELO1 494

Hard ELO1 495

Last 106–4

Age23

Sergey Fomin faces M. Shearer in the M25 Qian Daohu round of 16 on hard. M. Shearer brings the better recent hard form (6 of 10).

Key context

Last match: Sergey Fomin edged Dominik Palan in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).
Surface form: Sergey Fomin 4 of 10, M. Shearer 6 of 10 on hard recently — M. Shearer the sharper of late.
Fatigue load: M. Shearer carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Fomin S.Shearer M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–66–4

Season win rate49% (20–21)55% (11–9)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16731494

Hard-court ELO16061495

Serve vs returnLast 38 vs 10 matches

1st-serve points won68%75%

Return points won37%35%

Aces / match5.04.8

ClutchLast 38 vs 10 matches

Break points saved53%59%

Draw

Odds

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sergey Fomin vs M. Shearer — M25 Qian Daohu Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/fomin-vs-shearer-m25-qian-daohu-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).