UMPIRY
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Tiana Tian Deng vs Adithya Karunaratne — W15 Shenzhen Round of 32

W15 ShenzhenR32HardWed 14 Oct · 10:35
Tiana Tian DengWTA #689 · SWE32%
VSClear favourite · Karunaratne A.
Adithya Karunaratne(6)WTA #517 · SRI68%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Karunaratne A.
32%68%

Clear edge for Karunaratne A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Deng T.5.6/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Karunaratne A.6.1/10
Even matchBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface switchCarpet → HardSupports Karunaratne A.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 566
Hard ELO1 540
Last 107–3
Age18
ELO1 636
Hard ELO1 612
Last 107–3
Age24

Tiana Tian Deng faces Adithya Karunaratne in the W15 Shenzhen round of 32 on hard. Adithya Karunaratne is the paper favourite — ranked #517 — but Tiana Tian Deng arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on hard to Adithya Karunaratne's 2 of 5.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Deng T.Karunaratne A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–37–3
Season win rate66% (21–11)66% (23–12) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15661636 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15401612 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 27 vs 21 matches
1st-serve points won64% (ahead)63%
Return points won48%49% (ahead)
Aces / match1.9 (ahead)1.6
ClutchLast 27 vs 21 matches
Break points saved55%61% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:35 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast30°C · Drizzle
Wind13 km/h
Humidity61%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tiana Tian Deng vs Adithya Karunaratne — W15 Shenzhen Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-14/deng-vs-karunaratne-w15-shenzhen-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 14 October 2026).