Aidan Mchugh vs Karl Poling — M25 Austin Round of 32
Why
Surface form5 of last 10 on hardSupports Mchugh A.
Recent runLost last 3Supports Mchugh A.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Poling K.
Surface switchCarpet → HardAgainst the prediction · Poling K.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 684
Hard ELO1 668
Last 108–2
Age26
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $239K2026 $1K
ELO1 582
Hard ELO1 551
Last 104–6
Age27
Height185 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $90K2026 $27K
Aidan Mchugh faces Karl Poling in the M25 Austin round of 32 on hard. Karl Poling is the paper favourite — ranked #459, leading the head-to-head 1–0 — but Aidan Mchugh arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 8 on hard to Karl Poling's 2 of 8.
Key context
- Surface form: Aidan Mchugh 7 of 8, Karl Poling 2 of 8 on hard recently — Aidan Mchugh the sharper of late.
- Head-to-head: Karl Poling leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Laval 1 2024.
Common opponents
0 shared · last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Evidence
Mchugh A.Poling K.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate77% (10–3) (ahead)50% (22–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1684 (ahead)1582
Hard-court ELO1668 (ahead)1551
Serve vs returnLast 13 vs 32 matches
1st-serve points won73% (ahead)66%
Return points won42% (ahead)39%
Aces / match4.9 (ahead)2.0
ClutchLast 13 vs 32 matches
Break points saved67% (ahead)58%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Aidan Mchugh vs Karl Poling — M25 Austin Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/mchugh-vs-poling-m25-austin-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).