UMPIRY
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I. Urribarrens Ramirez vs Karl Poling — M25 Austin Round of 16

M25 AustinR16HardThu 15 Oct · 10:00
I. Urribarrens RamirezESP38%
VSSlight edge · Poling K.
Karl PolingATP #459 · USA62%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Poling K.
38%62%

Poling K. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Urribarrens Ramirez I.4.7/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Poling K.5.2/10
Clear underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form2 of last 10 on hardInformative
Recent runLost last 3Informative
CountryWon 54% in USA (54)Informative
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 563
Hard ELO1 525
Last 107–3
Age22
ELO1 587
Hard ELO1 556
Last 104–6
Age27

I. Urribarrens Ramirez faces Karl Poling in the M25 Austin round of 16 on hard. I. Urribarrens Ramirez brings the better recent hard form (7 of 10).

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Urribarrens Ramirez I.Poling K.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate67% (8–4) (ahead)51% (23–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15631587 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15251556 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 6 vs 42 matches
1st-serve points won66%66%
Return points won45% (ahead)39%
Aces / match2.02.0
ClutchLast 6 vs 42 matches
Break points saved69% (ahead)59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast27°C · Mainly clear
Wind14 km/h
Humidity69%

Cite this

Umpiry, "I. Urribarrens Ramirez vs Karl Poling — M25 Austin Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/poling-vs-ramirez-m25-austin-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).