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Sebastian Gorzny vs Edward Winter — M25 Austin Round of 32

M25 AustinR32HardTue 13 Oct · 13:05
Sebastian GorznyATP #413 · USA31%
VSClear favourite · Winter E.
Edward Winter(6)ATP #350 · AUS69%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Winter E.
31%69%

Clear edge for Winter E. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Gorzny S.6.3/10
Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Winter E.5.6/10
Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on hardAgainst the prediction · Gorzny S.
Recent runLost last 5Informative
CountryWon 62% in USA (52)Supports Winter E.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 599
Hard ELO1 578
Last 106–4
Age22
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $33K2026 $14K
ELO1 653
Hard ELO1 615
Last 104–6
Age22
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $247K2026 $68K

Sebastian Gorzny faces Edward Winter in the M25 Austin round of 32 on hard. Edward Winter is the paper favourite — ranked #350 — but Sebastian Gorzny arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on hard to Edward Winter's 4 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Gorzny S.Winter E.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate52% (13–12)56% (25–20) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO15991653 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO15781615 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 13 vs 21 matches
1st-serve points won70% (ahead)65%
Return points won40%41% (ahead)
Aces / match7.5 (ahead)2.0
ClutchLast 13 vs 21 matches
Break points saved71% (ahead)64%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:05 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast33°C · Mainly clear
Wind21 km/h
Humidity54%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Gorzny S.Winter E.
19 — fresherDays since last match15
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
0Matches · 14 days0
0Games · 14 days0
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sebastian Gorzny vs Edward Winter — M25 Austin Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/gorzny-vs-winter-m25-austin-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).