Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny — M25 Austin Round of 16

M25 AustinR16HardThu 15 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
54%46%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Vandecasteele Q.4.8/10
Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Gorzny S.6.3/10
Marginal edgeBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6
Why
Surface form6 of last 10 on hardAgainst the prediction · Gorzny S.
Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardAgainst the prediction · Gorzny S.
CountryWon 59% in USA (59)Against the prediction · Gorzny S.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 610
Hard ELO1 583
Last 105–5
Age24
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $95K2026 $28K
ELO1 604
Hard ELO1 583
Last 107–3
Age22
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $33K2026 $14K

Quinn Vandecasteele faces Sebastian Gorzny in the M25 Austin round of 16 on hard. Sebastian Gorzny holds the paper edge — ranked #413. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1
11

Evidence

Vandecasteele Q.Gorzny S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate50% (24–24)54% (14–12) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1610 (ahead)1604
Hard-court ELO15831583
Serve vs returnLast 46 vs 21 matches
1st-serve points won70%71% (ahead)
Return points won40% (ahead)39%
Aces / match5.77.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 46 vs 21 matches
Break points saved60%70% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast27°C · Mainly clear
Wind15 km/h
Humidity67%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Vandecasteele Q.Gorzny S.
17Days since last match21 — fresher
0Matches · 7 days0
0Games · 7 days0
0Matches · 14 days0
0Games · 14 days0
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Quinn Vandecasteele vs Sebastian Gorzny — M25 Austin Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/gorzny-vs-vandecasteele-m25-austin-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).