Martina Colmegna vs Francesca Jones — Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon Round of 32

Lisboa Belem Open - LisbonR32ClayTue 13 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Jones F.
27%73%

Clear edge for Jones F. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Colmegna M.4.5/10
Heavy underdog
Jones F.7.0/10
Strong advantage
Why
Surface+355 Clay Elo edgeSupports Jones F.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1619Supports Jones F.
Head-to-headTrails 0–1 on clayInformative
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 627
Clay ELO1 614
Last 106–4
Age29
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $166K2026 $20K
ELO1 800
Clay ELO1 722
Last 106–4
Age26
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.7M2026 $688K

Martina Colmegna faces Francesca Jones in the Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon round of 32 on clay. Francesca Jones is the paper favourite — ranked #104, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 350-point clay Elo advantage — but Martina Colmegna arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on clay to Francesca Jones's 2 of 5.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Jones F. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Colmegna M.Jones F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate57% (25–19)58% (30–22) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16271800 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO16141722 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 42 vs 45 matches
1st-serve points won60%61% (ahead)
Return points won46%46%
Aces / match0.61.6 (ahead)
ClutchLast 42 vs 45 matches
Break points saved54%57% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast19°C · Mainly clear
Wind10 km/h
Humidity75%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Martina Colmegna vs Francesca Jones — Lisboa Belem Open - Lisbon Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/colmegna-vs-jones-lisboa-belem-open-lisbon-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).