Lucas Poullain vs Tom Paris | Roanne Qualifying Round of 8

UMPIRY

RoanneQ8QualifyingHardMon 12 Oct · 10:30COURT 1 BELGIQUE · Next on

Lucas PoullainATP #322 · FRA60%

VSSlight edge · Poullain L.

Tom ParisATP #676 · FRA40%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Poullain L.

60%40%

Poullain L. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Poullain L.4.7/10

Heavy underdog

Paris T.4.7/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+70 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Paris T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1377Against the prediction · Paris T.

Head-to-headLeads 3–1 on hardSupports Poullain L.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Paris T.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 714

Hard ELO1 666

Last 104–6

Age30

Height175 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $224K2026 $30K

ELO1 660

Hard ELO1 590

Last 103–7

Age24

Height191 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $95K2026 $7K

Lucas Poullain faces Tom Paris in the Roanne qualifying round of 8 on hard. Lucas Poullain holds the paper edge — ranked #322, leading the head-to-head 3–1.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Lucas Poullain 81 games in 14 days, Tom Paris 18.
Last match: Tom Paris dropped the opening set before beating Yanis Ghazouani Durand 3–6 6–2 6–4.
Last match: Lucas Poullain dropped just 3 games past Gijs Brouwer.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Poullain L. leads 3–1

Poullain L.March 2026Cherbourg CHHard6-4 7-6
Paris T.February 2025Lille CHHard7-6 6-3
Poullain L.September 2023Orleans CHHard3-6 6-3 6-4
Poullain L.January 2023M15 Bressuire 1Hard6-4 3-6 10-5

Evidence

Poullain L.Paris T.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss4–63–7

Season win rate59% (24–17)27% (3–8)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17141660

Hard-court ELO16661590

Serve vs returnLast 30 vs 10 matches

1st-serve points won66%67%

Return points won41%33%

Aces / match2.04.1

ClutchLast 30 vs 10 matches

Break points saved55%61%

When it starts

COURT 1 BELGIQUE · Next on · Starts at 10:30

1This match: Poullain L. v Paris T.This match
2Brunold M. v Domenc M.Not before 15:30

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT 1 BELGIQUE · 10:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast9°C · Mainly clear

Wind1 km/h

Humidity87%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Poullain L.Paris T.

9Days since last match14

0Matches · 7 days0

0Games · 7 days0

3Matches · 14 days1

81Games · 14 days18

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lucas Poullain vs Tom Paris — Roanne Qualifying Round of 8", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/paris-vs-poullain-roanne-q8?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).