Matthew Dellavedova vs Mert Alkaya | M25 Luan Final

UMPIRY

M25 LuanFinalHardSun 11 Oct · 03:05

Matthew Dellavedova(1)ATP #283 · AUS53%

VSToss-up

Mert Alkaya(3)ATP #317 · TUR47%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

53%47%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Dellavedova M.4.3/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Alkaya M.4.2/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form5 of last 10 on hardAgainst the prediction · Alkaya M.

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Dellavedova M.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 688

Hard ELO1 662

Last 106–4

Age26

EarningsCareer $179K2026 $35K

ELO1 677

Hard ELO1 646

Last 107–3

Age26

EarningsCareer $87K2026 $39K

Matthew Dellavedova faces Mert Alkaya in the M25 Luan final on hard. Matthew Dellavedova holds the paper edge — ranked #283, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Last match: Mert Alkaya dropped the opening set before beating Nino Ehrenschneider 2–6 6–3 6–4.
Last match: Matthew Dellavedova advanced when Yanki Erel retired.
Head-to-head: Matthew Dellavedova leads the head-to-head 2–0, 1–0 on hard. Last met at M15 Heraklion 1 2025.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Dellavedova M. leads 2–0

Hard: Dellavedova M. leads 1–0 · Clay: Dellavedova M. leads 1–0

Dellavedova M.March 2025M15 Heraklion 1Hard5-7 6-4 6-1
Dellavedova M.May 2019M15 Antalya 17Clay6-1 7-6(7)

Evidence

Dellavedova M.Alkaya M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–47–3

Season win rate69% (45–20)55% (22–18)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO16881677

Hard-court ELO16621646

Serve vs returnLast 35 vs 26 matches

1st-serve points won64%71%

Return points won39%40%

Aces / match2.95.3

ClutchLast 35 vs 26 matches

Break points saved57%71%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

03:05 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast11°C · Partly cloudy

Wind11 km/h

Humidity75%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matthew Dellavedova vs Mert Alkaya — M25 Luan Final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-11/alkaya-vs-dellavedova-m25-luan-f?utm_source=cite (as of 11 October 2026).