Corentin Denolly vs Dev Javia — M25 Kigali Semi-final
Corentin Denolly faces Dev Javia in the M25 Kigali semi-final on clay. Corentin Denolly is the paper favourite — ranked #477, leading the head-to-head 1–0 — but Dev Javia arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on clay to Corentin Denolly's 4 of 6.
Key context
- Last match: Corentin Denolly edged T. Sahtali in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).
- Head-to-head: Corentin Denolly leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at M25 Kampala 1 2024.
- Surface form: Corentin Denolly 4 of 6, Dev Javia 5 of 6 on clay recently — Dev Javia the sharper of late.
Serve flowDenolly C. broken once · Javia D. unbroken.
- Hold to love/15
- Hold to 30
- Hold to 40 / deuce
- Broken
- Result unknown
Denolly C.2/3Javia D.3/3
Set 1
Match momentum
Last 28 pointsDenolly C.Javia D.Swinging toDenolly C.17
7Last 12 points5
8Last 3 games4
0/0Break points1/2
30 pointsNow
Break of serve
Key moments
Latest first- HOLD 0Set 1 · Game 6Denolly C. held to love
- HOLD 0Set 1 · Game 5Javia D. held to love
- HOLD 0Set 1 · Game 4Denolly C. held to love
- BREAKSet 1 · Game 2Javia D. broke serve
- HOLD 0Set 1 · Game 1Javia D. held to love
Pre-match context
Denolly C. came in with the higher clay rating (1652 vs 1577); Javia D. with the better recent record (8–2 vs 7–3); Denolly C. with the head-to-head lead (1–0).
Pre-match prediction
Set before the first ball · not updated in playPre-match win probability
61%39%
Umpiry Score
4.4/10/104.1
Matchup strength 0–10 · not a probabilityCommon opponents
0 shared · last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.
Season statistics
Form · Rating · Serve vs return · ClutchShowHide
Denolly C.Javia D.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–38–2 (ahead)
Season win rate48% (15–16)72% (18–7) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1671 (ahead)1598
Clay-court ELO1652 (ahead)1577
Serve vs returnLast 31 vs 20 matches
1st-serve points won69%73% (ahead)
Return points won41%41%
Aces / match3.64.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 31 vs 20 matches
Break points saved60%68% (ahead)
Draw
Cite this
Umpiry, "Corentin Denolly vs Dev Javia — M25 Kigali Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-10/denolly-vs-javia-m25-kigali-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 10 October 2026).