Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev — Shanghai Masters Round of 32
Why
Surface+259 Hard Elo edgeSupports Rublev A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1902Supports Rublev A.
Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Sakamoto R.
This eventReached qualifying here last yearInformative
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Sakamoto R.
ELO1 861
Hard ELO1 757
Last 107–3
Age20
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $570K2026 $311K
ELO2 031
Hard ELO1 864
Last 106–4
Age28
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $34.0M2026 $2.0M
Rei Sakamoto faces Andrey Rublev in the Shanghai Masters round of 32 on hard. Andrey Rublev is the paper favourite — ranked #23, defending last year's round of 64, a roughly 260-point hard Elo advantage — but Rei Sakamoto rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Freshness: Rei Sakamoto comes in with 1 days of rest and 106 games in 14d, vs Andrey Rublev's 4 and 179.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Andrey Rublev has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 82 vs 49).
- Stage: Rei Sakamoto defends last year's round of 128; Andrey Rublev defends last year's round of 64.
Common opponents
5 shared · last 12 monthsSakamoto R. and Rublev A. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Sakamoto R. went 1–4 (20%) against them, Rublev A. 3–2 (60%). Rublev A. came out better against 2 of 5 comparable opponents, Sakamoto R. against 0.
1–420%Sakamoto R. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents3–260%Rublev A. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
5–10Sets8–5
72–86Games70–59
3–2Tiebreaks1–0
1–2Deciding sets0–0
vs Medvedev D.#5L7-6 3-6 1-6Miami Masters · hardL5-7 4-6Hangzhou · hard
vs Arnaldi M.#38L6-2 4-6 4-6Tokyo · hardW6-4 6-2 6-3Australian Open · hard
vs Faria J.#60L6-7 6-4 3-6 4-6Wimbledon · grassW6-4 6-3 4-6 7-5Australian Open · hard
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vs Kopriva V.#68L4-6 6-7Indian Wells Masters · hardL3-6 4-6Madrid Masters · clay
vs Jacquet K.#76W7-6(6) 4-6 7-6(8)Shanghai Masters · hardW7-6(0) 6-1Hangzhou · hard
Head-to-head
They have not met before.
Evidence
Sakamoto R.Rublev A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate63% (37–22) (ahead)62% (33–20)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO18612031 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17571864 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 32 vs 36 matches
1st-serve points won73%74% (ahead)
Return points won37%38% (ahead)
Aces / match6.67.2 (ahead)
ClutchLast 32 vs 36 matches
Break points saved60%69% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Rei Sakamoto vs Andrey Rublev — Shanghai Masters Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-09/rublev-vs-sakamoto-shanghai-masters-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 9 October 2026).