Calvin Hemery vs Marlon Vankan | M25 Kigali Quarter-final

UMPIRY

M25 KigaliQuarter-finalClayFri 9 Oct · 11:00

Calvin Hemery(3)ATP #309 · FRA68%

VSClear favourite · Hemery C.

Marlon Vankan(7)ATP #663 · GER32%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Hemery C.

68%32%

Clear edge for Hemery C. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Hemery C.4.9/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Vankan M.4.1/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form5 of last 10 on claySupports Hemery C.

Recent runLost last 2Informative

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysInformative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 723

Clay ELO1 690

Last 109–1

Age31

Height191 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $950K2026 $69K

ELO1 639

Clay ELO1 615

Last 107–3

Age26

Height170 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $69K2026 $10K

Calvin Hemery faces Marlon Vankan in the M25 Kigali quarter-final on clay. Calvin Hemery holds the paper edge — ranked #309.

Key context

Last match: Marlon Vankan dropped just 5 games past Noah Schachter.
Last match: Calvin Hemery edged Benjamin Lock in three tight sets (7–6 4–6 7–6).
Fatigue load: Calvin Hemery carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Hemery C.Vankan M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss9–17–3

Season win rate61% (35–22)77% (23–7)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17231639

Clay-court ELO16901615

Serve vs returnLast 28 vs 11 matches

1st-serve points won74%67%

Return points won35%48%

Aces / match5.93.2

ClutchLast 28 vs 11 matches

Break points saved60%61%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast25°C · Overcast

Wind7 km/h

Humidity55%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Calvin Hemery vs Marlon Vankan — M25 Kigali Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-09/hemery-vs-vankan-m25-kigali-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 9 October 2026).