Lukas Neumayer vs Max Alcala Gurri — Braga Quarter-final

BragaQuarter-finalClayFri 9 Oct · 13:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Alcala Gurri M.
42%58%

Alcala Gurri M. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Neumayer L.5.6/10
Slight disadvantage
Alcala Gurri M.5.6/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+34 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Neumayer L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1621Against the prediction · Neumayer L.
Recent run7-match win streakSupports Alcala Gurri M.
Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on clayAgainst the prediction · Neumayer L.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Alcala Gurri M.
ELO1 748
Clay ELO1 714
Last 106–4
Age24
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $623K2026 $180K
ELO1 761
Clay ELO1 740
Last 108–2
Age24
Height178 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $174K2026 $61K

Lukas Neumayer faces Max Alcala Gurri in the Braga quarter-final on clay. Lukas Neumayer is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 30-point clay Elo advantage — but Max Alcala Gurri rides a 7-match win streak. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Neumayer L. leads 2–0
20

Evidence

Neumayer L.Alcala Gurri M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–48–2 (ahead)
Season win rate61% (37–24)73% (32–12) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17481761 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO17141740 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 31 vs 3 matches
1st-serve points won68% (ahead)62%
Return points won39%41% (ahead)
Aces / match2.9 (ahead)0.0
ClutchLast 31 vs 3 matches
Break points saved61% (ahead)53%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

13:00 local
SurfaceClay · slow
Forecast21°C · Clear
Wind5 km/h
Humidity46%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Neumayer L.Alcala Gurri M.
1Days since last match1
1Matches · 7 days1
27Games · 7 days15 — fresher
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
46 — fresherGames · 14 days59
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lukas Neumayer vs Max Alcala Gurri — Braga Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-09/gurri-vs-neumayer-braga-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 9 October 2026).