UMPIRY

Matej Dodig vs Lukas Neumayer — Braga Semi-final

BragaSemi-finalClaySat 10 Oct · 11:00
Matej DodigATP #174 · CRO56%
VSToss-up
Lukas NeumayerATP #180 · AUT44%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
56%44%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Dodig M.5.3/10
Clear underdog
Neumayer L.5.8/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+169 Clay Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Neumayer L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1621Against the prediction · Neumayer L.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on claySupports Dodig M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Dodig M.
Recent run3-match win streakBoth players
ELO1 768
Clay ELO1 704
Last 108–2
Age21
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $347K2026 $154K
ELO1 751
Clay ELO1 717
Last 107–3
Age24
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $623K2026 $180K

Matej Dodig faces Lukas Neumayer in the Braga semi-final on clay. Matej Dodig holds the paper edge — ranked #174, leading the head-to-head 1–0.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Dodig M. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Dodig M.Neumayer L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)7–3
Season win rate63% (34–20) (ahead)61% (38–24)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1768 (ahead)1751
Clay-court ELO17041717 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 35 vs 41 matches
1st-serve points won71% (ahead)67%
Return points won37%40% (ahead)
Aces / match5.1 (ahead)3.0
ClutchLast 35 vs 41 matches
Break points saved59%60% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceClay · slow
Forecast19°C · Partly cloudy
Wind2 km/h
Humidity52%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Dodig M.Neumayer L.
1Days since last match1
2Matches · 7 days2
42 — fresherGames · 7 days43
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days3
42 — fresherGames · 14 days62
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Matej Dodig vs Lukas Neumayer — Braga Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-10/dodig-vs-neumayer-braga-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 10 October 2026).