Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Francesco Passaro — Palermo Round of 16

PalermoR16ClayThu 8 Oct · 17:00CENTER COURT (1) · After 2 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Passaro F.
41%59%

Passaro F. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Caniato C.5.5/10
Slight disadvantage
Passaro F.7.2/10
Strong advantage
Why
Surface+300 Clay Elo edgeSupports Passaro F.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1592Supports Passaro F.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on claySupports Passaro F.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Passaro F.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 683
Clay ELO1 650
Last 109–1
Age20
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $103K2026 $21K
ELO1 831
Clay ELO1 721
Last 106–4
Age25
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.5M2026 $100K

Carlo Alberto Caniato faces Francesco Passaro in the Palermo round of 16 on clay. Francesco Passaro is the paper favourite — ranked #229, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 300-point clay Elo advantage — but Carlo Alberto Caniato arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 6 on clay to Francesco Passaro's 3 of 6.

Key context

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Passaro F. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Caniato C.Passaro F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss9–1 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate60% (26–17) (ahead)53% (18–16)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO16831831 (ahead)
Clay-court ELO16501721 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 10 vs 11 matches
1st-serve points won74% (ahead)69%
Return points won36%37% (ahead)
Aces / match4.64.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 10 vs 11 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)63%

When it starts

CENTER COURT (1) · After 2 matches · Not before 5:00 PM

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT (1) · 17:00 local
SurfaceClay
Forecast31°C · Partly cloudy
Wind2 km/h
Humidity41%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Caniato C.Passaro F.
2Days since last match2
1Matches · 7 days1
17 — fresherGames · 7 days20
5Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
98Games · 14 days20 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Francesco Passaro — Palermo Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/caniato-vs-passaro-palermo-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).