Claude Ishimwe vs Florent Bax | M25 Kigali Round of 16

UMPIRY

M25 KigaliR16ClayThu 8 Oct · 11:35

Claude IshimweRWA11%

VSStrong favourite · Bax F.

Florent Bax(2)ATP #302 · FRA89%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Bax F.

11%89%

Clear edge for Bax F. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 9 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Ishimwe C.5.5/10

Slight disadvantageBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Bax F.4.8/10

Heavy underdogBased on 5/6 signal groups5/6

Why

Surface form4 of last 10 on clayInformative

Recent runLost last 3Informative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 462

Clay ELO1 462

Last 101–9

Age19

ELO1 691

Clay ELO1 655

Last 106–4

Age27

Claude Ishimwe faces Florent Bax in the M25 Kigali round of 16 on clay. Florent Bax brings the better recent clay form (4 of 5).

Key context

Last match: Claude Ishimwe dropped just 5 games past Etienne Niyigena.
Last match: Florent Bax handed Anup Bangargi a second-set bagel in a 6–3 6–0 win.
Surface form: Claude Ishimwe 1 of 5, Florent Bax 4 of 5 on clay recently — Florent Bax the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Ishimwe C.Bax F.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss1–96–4

Season win rate25% (1–3)58% (32–23)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO14621691

Clay-court ELO14621655

Serve vs returnLast 2 vs 26 matches

1st-serve points won48%75%

Return points won25%35%

Aces / match2.07.0

ClutchLast 2 vs 26 matches

Break points saved50%62%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:35 local

SurfaceClay

Forecast29°C · Drizzle

Wind8 km/h

Humidity44%

Cite this

Umpiry, "Claude Ishimwe vs Florent Bax — M25 Kigali Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/bax-vs-ishimwe-m25-kigali-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).