Vilius Gaubas vs Duje Ajdukovic | Braga Round of 16

UMPIRY

BragaR16ClayThu 8 Oct · ~16:00CENTRE COURT · After 2 matches

Vilius Gaubas(3)ATP #141 · LTU67%

VSClear favourite · Gaubas V.

Duje AjdukovicATP #353 · CRO33%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Gaubas V.

67%33%

Clear edge for Gaubas V. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Gaubas V.6.5/10

Marginal edge

Ajdukovic D.5.6/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+73 Clay Elo edgeSupports Gaubas V.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1581Supports Gaubas V.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on claySupports Gaubas V.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Gaubas V.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 825

Clay ELO1 705

Last 106–4

Age21

Height178 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $897K2026 $413K

ELO1 694

Clay ELO1 661

Last 105–5

Age25

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $727K2026 $35K

Vilius Gaubas faces Duje Ajdukovic in the Braga round of 16 on clay. Vilius Gaubas holds the paper edge — ranked #141, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Vilius Gaubas comes in with 3 days of rest and 19 games in 14d, vs Duje Ajdukovic's 3 and 45.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Vilius Gaubas has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 57 vs 32).
Last match: Duje Ajdukovic dropped just 4 games past Filip Cristian Jianu.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Gaubas V. and Ajdukovic D. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Gaubas V. went 1–0 (100%) against them, Ajdukovic D. 0–1 (0%).

1–0100%Gaubas V. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents0–10%Ajdukovic D. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

2–0Sets0–2

12–7Games7–12

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Cecchinato M.#163W6-4 6-3US Open · hardL3-6 4-6Umag · clay

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Gaubas V. leads 1–0

Gaubas V.May 2025Roland GarrosClay6-7(4) 6-4 6-4

Evidence

Gaubas V.Ajdukovic D.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–45–5

Season win rate54% (31–26)47% (17–19)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18251694

Clay-court ELO17051661

Serve vs returnLast 34 vs 20 matches

1st-serve points won65%67%

Return points won38%39%

Aces / match3.23.6

ClutchLast 34 vs 20 matches

Break points saved65%50%

When it starts

CENTRE COURT · After 2 matches · Followed by

1Pereira T. v Sanchez Izquierdo N.Not before 13:00
2Piros Z. v Moller E.Followed by
3This match: Gaubas V. v Ajdukovic D.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTRE COURT · ~16:00 local

SurfaceClay · slow

Forecast23°C · Overcast

Wind5 km/h

Humidity41%

Court pace slow: low bounce, long rallies.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Gaubas V.Ajdukovic D.

3Days since last match3

1Matches · 7 days1

19Games · 7 days16

1Matches · 14 days2

19Games · 14 days45

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Vilius Gaubas vs Duje Ajdukovic — Braga Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-08/ajdukovic-vs-gaubas-braga-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 8 October 2026).