Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov — Chengdu Qualifying Round of 8
RUS
Mochizuki S.
Shintaro Mochizuki faces Pavel Kotov in the Chengdu qualifying round of 8 on hard. Shintaro Mochizuki is the paper favourite — ranked #125 — but Pavel Kotov arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on hard to Shintaro Mochizuki's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Shintaro Mochizuki 20 games in 14 days, Pavel Kotov 205.
- Form trend: Shintaro Mochizuki's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Pavel Kotov's has cooled.
- Last match: Pavel Kotov dropped the opening set before beating Luca Castelnuovo 6–7 7–5 7–5.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMochizuki S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Kotov P.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 104 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.