Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover

Plovdiv 4 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

ESP1

Max Alcala Gurri

#163ATP

1581ELO

1564Clay ELO

$61kYTD

$174kCAREER

24 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLWWWLWLL

—

Sets

Wednesday, 23 September 2026 · 10:00

clay

ESP

Carlos Sanchez Jover

#334ATP

1360ELO

1341Clay ELO

$34kYTD

$228kCAREER

26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WLLWWLWWWW

Alcala Gurri M.

Sanchez Jover C.

Max Alcala Gurri faces Carlos Sanchez Jover in the Plovdiv 4 round of 16 on clay. Max Alcala Gurri is the paper favourite — ranked #163, a roughly 220-point clay Elo advantage — but Carlos Sanchez Jover has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC

Alcala Gurri M.57%

Sanchez Jover C.43%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Max Alcala Gurri 111 games in 14 days, Carlos Sanchez Jover 47.
Last match: Max Alcala Gurri dropped just 6 games past Eliakim Coulibaly.
Last match: Carlos Sanchez Jover edged Michael Geerts in two tight sets (6–4 7–5).

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Alcala Gurri M.

6.7

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Sanchez Jover C.

4.5

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

7.8+223 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.2Clay Elo 1341

7.8Overall Elo 1580

ELO gap

2.2Overall Elo 1360

5.2Split 1–1 on clay

H2H

4.8Split 1–1 on clay

5.35 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.96 of last 10 on clay

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

3 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season

Alcala Gurri M.Sanchez Jover C.

1st serve in·Slight edge

71%

65%

1st serve points won·Even

62%

63%

2nd serve points won·Even

52%

48%

Service points won·Even

59%

58%

Return points won·Even

41%

43%

Break points saved·Slight edge

53%

59%

Aces / match·Clear edge

0.0

1.7

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.0

2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Alcala Gurri M.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Sanchez Jover C.

Sanchez Jover C.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Alcala Gurri M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Alcala Gurri M.Sanchez Jover C.

Freshness·Clear edge

Alcala Gurri M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Sanchez Jover C.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

15°CMainly clear

Wind 20 km/hHumidity 50%

Head to head

1–2

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-06-18	Challenger Men - Singles: Royan (France), Clay	QF	clay	Max Alcala Gurri	6-2 7-5
2025-02-16	M15 Valencia 2	F	clay	Carlos Sanchez Jover	2-4
2021-10-21	M15 Girona 1	R16	clay	Carlos Sanchez Jover	3-6 6-3 6-2

Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover — Plovdiv 4 Round of 16