Noemi Basiletti vs Mia Ristic — Tolentino Open - Tolentino Round of 16
Basiletti N.
Noemi Basiletti faces Mia Ristic in the Tolentino Open - Tolentino round of 16 on clay. Mia Ristic is the paper favourite — ranked #191, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage — but Noemi Basiletti arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 7 on clay to Mia Ristic's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Ristic M. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Mia Ristic dropped the opening set before beating Arantxa Rus 4–6 6–0 6–3.
- Surface form: Noemi Basiletti 6 of 7, Mia Ristic 5 of 7 on clay recently — Noemi Basiletti the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Mia Ristic carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadBasiletti N.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 68 games (7d) · Ristic M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 84 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.