Mia Ristic vs Arantxa RusTolentino Open - Tolentino Round of 32

Tolentino Open - Tolentino · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#191WTA
1504ELO
1479Clay ELO
$46kYTD
$128kCAREER
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 21 September 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 3rd on
#253WTA
1511ELO
1500Clay ELO
$109kYTD
$4.7MCAREER
35 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
Ristic M.
4-6 6-0 6-3
Rus A.
Ristic M.
4662
Rus A.
6031

Mia Ristic defeated Arantxa Rus in the Round of 32 at the Tolentino Open in Tolentino, a clay court event. The match ended with a score of 4-6, 6-0, 6-3 in favor of Ristic. Ristic hit one ace and no double faults, while Rus had no aces and two double faults; Ristic converted 100% of her break points and had three service breaks, compared to Rus' 25% conversion rate and two service breaks.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Momentum · Final
Ristic M.8/13
Rus A.4/14

hold to 0/15to 30to 40 / deucebroken

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
75%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
57%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
53%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
53%
Return points won·Even
45%
46%
Break points saved·Even
55%
51%
Aces / match·Even
1.5
1.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.0
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
19
0
Break points saved·Dominant
35
10
Break points won·Dominant
54
27
Deciding sets·Dominant
45
4
Tiebreaks·
0

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Ristic M.72%
Rus A.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ristic M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Clay Elo 1479
Surface ELO
5.3+21 Clay Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1504
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1511
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
67
75

Ristic M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 84 games (7d) · Rus A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw