Alina Korneeva vs Darya Astakhova — Korea Open - Seoul Round of 16
RUSQ
Korneeva A.Alina Korneeva faces Darya Astakhova in the Korea Open - Seoul round of 16 on hard. Alina Korneeva is the paper favourite — ranked #81, a roughly 270-point hard Elo advantage — but Darya Astakhova arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on hard to Alina Korneeva's 6.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Korneeva A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Alina Korneeva 18 games in 14 days, Darya Astakhova 78.
- Last match: Darya Astakhova dropped the opening set before beating Magda Linette 3–6 6–1 7–6.
- Last match: Alina Korneeva dropped just 6 games past Mananchaya Sawangkaew.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (46 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadKorneeva A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Astakhova D.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.