Francisca Jorge vs Mia PohankovaEupago Porto Open - Porto Round of 32

Eupago Porto Open - Porto · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#213WTA
1525ELO
1510Hard ELO
$138kYTD
$482kCAREER
26 yrs
Last 10
LWWLWWLWLW
Sets
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 ·
hard
Centre court · 3rd on
#212WTA
1708ELO
1637Hard ELO
$65kYTD
$93kCAREER
17 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLWLLLL
Jorge F.
vs
Pohankova M.

Francisca Jorge faces Mia Pohankova in the Eupago Porto Open - Porto round of 32 on hard. Mia Pohankova holds the paper edge — ranked #212, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Jorge F.50%
Pohankova M.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Francisca Jorge carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 4 of 6 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.4Hard Elo 1510
Surface ELO
6.6+127 Hard Elo edge
2.7Overall Elo 1525
ELO gap
7.3Overall Elo 1708
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
55%
58%
Return points won·Even
46%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
49%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.0
5.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.4
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Jorge F.serving53% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Pohankova M.

Pohankova M.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Jorge F.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
71
68

Jorge F.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 80 games (7d) · Pohankova M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

3rd on Centre court · Followed By · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Voloshchuk A. v Franco Dias T.
    6-06-2
  2. 2Jorge M. v Cervino Ruiz C.Live
    0-2
  3. 3Jorge F. v Pohankova M.This match
  4. 4Podrez V. v Matias M.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw