Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva — Sao Paulo Round of 32
RUS8
You X.
Xiaodi You faces Alina Charaeva in the Sao Paulo round of 32 on hard. Alina Charaeva is the paper favourite — ranked #133, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage — but Xiaodi You has won their only previous meeting. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Xiaodi You comes in with 1 days of rest and 54 games in 14d, vs Alina Charaeva's 20 and 0.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Alina Charaeva has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 56 vs 16).
- Head-to-head: Xiaodi You leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at W50 La Marsa 1 2025.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 51). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadYou X.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 54 games (7d) · Charaeva A.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
1st on Quadra 2 · Starting at 2:00 PM · up next on court
- 1You X. v Charaeva A.This match
- 2Ortenzi J. v Paquet C.
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | W50 La Marsa 1 | R16 | hard | Xiaodi You | 6-2 6-2 |