Alex Barrena vs Maxime Chazal — Biella Round of 32
ARG4
Barrena A.
Alex Barrena faces Maxime Chazal in the Biella round of 32 on clay. Alex Barrena is the paper favourite — ranked #235, a roughly 80-point clay Elo advantage — but Maxime Chazal arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 9 on clay to Alex Barrena's 6.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Alex Barrena 132 games in 14 days, Maxime Chazal 20.
- Under pressure: Alex Barrena has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 30 vs Maxime Chazal's 4).
- Surface form: Alex Barrena 6 of 9, Maxime Chazal 8 of 9 on clay recently — Maxime Chazal the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBarrena A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 110 games (7d) · Chazal M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.