Whitney Osuigwe vs Anastasia Tikhonova — Sao Paulo Qualifying Round of 8

Sao Paulo · WTA · Qualifying Round of 8
Whitney Osuigwe
USA
Whitney Osuigwe
#234WTA
1489ELO
1454Hard ELO
$167kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
24 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLLLWLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 13 September 2026 ·
hard
Quadra Central Maria Esther Bueno · 2nd on
RUS
Anastasia Tikhonova
#262WTA
1347ELO
1302Hard ELO
$56kYTD
$533kCAREER
25 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWLWL
Osuigwe W.
vs
Tikhonova A.

Whitney Osuigwe faces Anastasia Tikhonova in the Sao Paulo qualifying round of 8 on hard. Whitney Osuigwe is the paper favourite — ranked #234, leading the head-to-head 2–1, defending last year's round of 16 — but Anastasia Tikhonova arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 5 on hard to Whitney Osuigwe's 1.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Osuigwe W.54%
Tikhonova A.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Osuigwe W.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Tikhonova A.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.9+152 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Hard Elo 1302
6.8Overall Elo 1489
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1347
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
4.85 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.95 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

41 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
Osuigwe W.Tikhonova A.
1st serve in·Clear edge
67%
52%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
43%
Service points won·Even
54%
53%
Return points won·Even
46%
42%
Break points saved·Even
54%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.6
2.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.1
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Osuigwe W.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Tikhonova A.

Tikhonova A.serving58% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Osuigwe W.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Osuigwe W.Tikhonova A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
24
0
Break points saved·Slight edge
18
13
Break points won·Slight edge
88
78
Deciding sets·Dominant
44
1
Tiebreaks·
—
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Osuigwe W.Tikhonova A.
Freshness·Dominant
90
61

Osuigwe W.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Tikhonova A.: played today · 4 matches, 94 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on Quadra Central Maria Esther Bueno · Not before 1:30 PM · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Mikulskyte J. v Paquet C.
  2. 2Osuigwe W. v Tikhonova A.This match

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
17°CDrizzle
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 83%

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-23W50 Spring 1R16hardWhitney Osuigwe6-0 7-5
2023-06-07W60 CasertaR32clayAnastasia Tikhonova6-2 6-2
2022-08-24US OpenQ128hardWhitney Osuigwe6-3 7-6(5)

Draw