Justina Mikulskyte vs Chloe Paquet — Sao Paulo Qualifying Round of 8

Sao Paulo · WTA · Qualifying Round of 8
LTU
Justina Mikulskyte
#231WTA
1357ELO
1315Hard ELO
$115kYTD
$508kCAREER
30 yrs
Last 10
WLWLWWWLWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 13 September 2026 ·
hard
Quadra Central Maria Esther Bueno · 1st on
Chloe Paquet
FRA
Chloe Paquet
#297WTA
1479ELO
1432Hard ELO
$117kYTD
$2.1MCAREER
32 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLLLWLL
Mikulskyte J.
vs
Paquet C.

Justina Mikulskyte faces Chloe Paquet in the Sao Paulo qualifying round of 8 on hard. Chloe Paquet holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Mikulskyte J.64%
Paquet C.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mikulskyte J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Mikulskyte J. 0–1 · Paquet C. 1–0 · small sample
Mixed · hard to compare — different surfaces (Grass × Hard) · 7 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mikulskyte J.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Paquet C.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.5Hard Elo 1315
Surface ELO
6.5+116 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1357
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1479
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
7.68 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

43 vs 41 matches

Statistics

This season
Mikulskyte J.Paquet C.
1st serve in·Even
61%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
43%
Service points won·Even
54%
55%
Return points won·Even
46%
44%
Break points saved·Even
51%
52%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.9
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mikulskyte J.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Paquet C.

Paquet C.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Mikulskyte J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Mikulskyte J.Paquet C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
20
0
Break points saved·Clear edge
25
5
Break points won·Dominant
81
6
Deciding sets·Dominant
35
1
Tiebreaks·
—
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Mikulskyte J.Paquet C.
Freshness·Slight edge
89
79

Mikulskyte J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Paquet C.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

1st on Quadra Central Maria Esther Bueno · Starting at 12:00 PM · up next on court

  1. 1Mikulskyte J. v Paquet C.This match
  2. 2Osuigwe W. v Tikhonova A.

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
16°CDrizzle
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 86%

Head to head

0–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-07W75 The HagueR32clayChloe Paquet1-6 3-6
2024-04-19W75 Koper 1QFclayChloe Paquet3-6 6-1 6-4

Draw